Rethinking graduate recruitment: From volume to value

It’s a familiar story for graduate employers. You’ve received more applications than ever before, but without the quality candidates to back the numbers up. After sifting through thousands of applications, you will invite, on average, only 21% of candidates back for the second round of the application process: that’s a lot of work for little pay-off.

So, why is quantity winning out over quality in the early careers space, and what can you do about it? Well, we’ve got you covered. Read on for our de-brief on the state of graduate employment – and five tips to increase quality applications.

What’s behind the rise in applications?

1. There are more graduates – but fewer graduate roles

The graduate market is increasingly oversaturated. In 2023, graduate vacancies grew by 6%. This slipped to 4% in 2024 and, according to ISE projections, will reach just 1% in 2025. Meanwhile, the number going to university remains high, so graduate job applications are not seeing the same drop. The ISE reported a record 59% year-on-year surge in job applications, with the highest ratio of applications to vacancies in 30 years. Today, 57% of students say that they apply for as many jobs as possible. It’s no surprise, then, that post-2020 we have seen consistent graduate unemployment of around 1 in 8 after 12 months.

2. AI has reduced friction in the application process

AI may not be taking your job, but it is proving highly disruptive to recruitment – especially cyclical recruitment like that of graduates. For candidates, AI is removing much of the friction that once acted as a deterrent or self-selector: the well-written cover letter, for example. Today, 50% of candidates report using AI tools when completing applications. That means graduates can apply for dozens of jobs simultaneously with minimum effort – but not necessarily that those candidates are high quality, despite a slick application.

3.  Selection criteria have become less specific

Add to that another factor that has reduced friction in the application process: the trend to eliminate arbitrary candidate criteria. Ten years ago, 40% of graduate recruiters used A-levels as a selection criterion – and today, it’s around 13%. In a welcome attempt to hire more diverse audiences, recruiters are relying less on numerical measures and more on skills-based criteria. But this also makes it more difficult to narrow down applicants in the early stages of the application process.

What’s the best way to set specific criteria without decreasing accessibility? 

It’s clear that, if we want to increase quality over quantity, we need to get specific about selection criteria, increase friction, and target the right people. And we can do that without returning to an over-emphasis on qualifications – which can mean that diversity takes a hit. Instead, get specific about what you mean by quality. Much of the time, when we dig down a little, quality is a proxy for hard work, attitude, and initiative. If that’s the case, traditional academic screening will only go so far. Instead, indicators might include:

• Holding part-time jobs alongside studies
• Involvement in extracurriculars or leadership roles
• Proactive engagement with employers or career events

Clarifying your definition of quality within your organisation helps to build consistency in the way you assess candidates and set clear expectations. Externally, it helps candidates understand what you’re looking for – and make better decisions about where to apply.

So, how can you attract high-quality graduate candidates?

To help you find more of the people you want and discourage those you don’t, here are some ideas: 

1. Give your candidates other ways to show their enthusiasm for YOUR job, not just any old job: create new upfront tasks or questions that encourage self-selection and reduce low-effort applications.
    
2. Be honest. Show them you on your best day, not a fantasy. Candidates who still apply for the unvarnished version of you will be more engaged and more appropriate.
    
3. Make your media choices work harder. Not all students are the same and it’s never been easier to segment your audience. Think carefully about who you want, then build a strategy with graduate marketing experts who can optimise your campaigns.
    
4. Define and agree what good looks like for your organisation, and make sure everyone is bought in. Think about the balance of aptitude and attitude, not just grades and experience.

At ThirtyThree, we work with a wide range of organisations to help improve the recruitment experience for both candidates and employers, through better messaging and targeting strategies. To talk to our Early Careers specialists, contact us – hello@thirtythree.co.uk – we’d love to help.